Spatial--temporal mesoscale modeling of rainfall intensity using gage and radar data

Gridded estimated rainfall intensity values at very high spatial and temporal resolution levels are needed as main inputs for weather prediction models to obtain accurate precipitation forecasts, and to verify the performance of precipitation forecast models. These gridded rainfall fields are also the main driver for hydrological models that forecast flash floods, and they are essential for disaster prediction associated with heavy rain. Rainfall information can be obtained from rain gages that provide relatively accurate estimates of the actual rainfall values at point-referenced locations, but they do not characterize well enough the spatial and temporal structure of the rainfall fields. Doppler radar data offer better spatial and temporal coverage, but Doppler radar measures effective radar reflectivity ($Ze$) rather than rainfall rate ($R$). Thus, rainfall estimates from radar data suffer from various uncertainties due to their measuring principle and the conversion from $Ze$ to $R$. We introduce a framework to combine radar reflectivity and gage data, by writing the different sources of rainfall information in terms of an underlying unobservable spatial temporal process with the true rainfall values. We use spatial logistic regression to model the probability of rain for both sources of data in terms of the latent true rainfall process. We characterize the different sources of bias and error in the gage and radar data and we estimate the true rainfall intensity with its posterior predictive distribution, conditioning on the observed data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS166 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Improved motion vectors in rainfall nowcasting using Burgers’ equation

Presentación realizada en la 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, celebrada en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 24 al 26 de abril de 2019

Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks

The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics.Comment: 29 pages, 14 figure

Current status of the predicted satellite imagery generation in NMSC/KMA

Póster presentado en: 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, celebrada en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 24 al 26 de abril de 2019

Regularization of chaos by noise in electrically driven nanowire systems

The electrically driven nanowire systems are of great importance to nanoscience and engineering. Due to strong nonlinearity, chaos can arise, but in many applications it is desirable to suppress chaos. The intrinsically high-dimensional nature of the system prevents application of the conventional method of controlling chaos. Remarkably, we find that the phenomenon of coherence resonance, which has been well documented but for low-dimensional chaotic systems, can occur in the nanowire system that mathematically is described by two coupled nonlinear partial differential equations, subject to periodic driving and noise. Especially, we find that, when the nanowire is in either the weakly chaotic or the extensively chaotic regime, an optimal level of noise can significantly enhance the regularity of the oscillations. This result is robust because it holds regardless of whether noise is white or colored, and of whether the stochastic drivings in the two independent directions transverse to the nanowire are correlated or independent of each other. Noise can thus regularize chaotic oscillations through the mechanism of coherence resonance in the nanowire system. More generally, we posit that noise can provide a practical way to harness chaos in nanoscale systems.open

Relative Importance of Radar Variables for Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall: A Machine Learning Approach

Highly short-term forecasting, or nowcasting, of heavy rainfall due to rapidly evolving mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is particularly challenging for traditional numerical weather prediction models. To overcome such a challenge, a growing number of studies have shown significant advantages of using machine learning (ML) modeling techniques with remote sensing data, especially weather radar data, for high-resolution rainfall nowcasting. To improve ML model performance, it is essential first and foremost to quantify the importance of radar variables and identify pertinent predictors of rainfall that can also be associated with domain knowledge. In this study, a set of MCS types consisting of convective cell, mesoscale convective cell, diagonal squall line, and parallel squall line, was adopted to categorize MCS storm cells, following the fuzzy logic algorithm for storm tracking, over the Korean Peninsula. The relationships between rain rates and over 15 variables derived from data products of dual-polarimetric weather radar were investigated and quantified via 5 ML regression methods and a permutation importance algorithm. As an applicational example, ML classification models were also developed to predict locations of storm cells. Recalibrated ML regression models with identified pertinent predictors were coupled with the ML classification models to provide early warnings of heavy rainfall. Results imply that future work needs to consider MCS type information to improve ML modeling for nowcasting and early warning of heavy rainfall

Toward Data-Driven Digital Therapeutics Analytics: Literature Review and Research Directions

With the advent of Digital Therapeutics (DTx), the development of software as a medical device (SaMD) for mobile and wearable devices has gained significant attention in recent years. Existing DTx evaluations, such as randomized clinical trials, mostly focus on verifying the effectiveness of DTx products. To acquire a deeper understanding of DTx engagement and behavioral adherence, beyond efficacy, a large amount of contextual and interaction data from mobile and wearable devices during field deployment would be required for analysis. In this work, the overall flow of the data-driven DTx analytics is reviewed to help researchers and practitioners to explore DTx datasets, to investigate contextual patterns associated with DTx usage, and to establish the (causal) relationship of DTx engagement and behavioral adherence. This review of the key components of data-driven analytics provides novel research directions in the analysis of mobile sensor and interaction datasets, which helps to iteratively improve the receptivity of existing DTx.Comment: This paper has been accepted by the IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinic

Accurate characterization of winter precipitation using multi-angle snowflake camera, visual hull, advanced scattering methods and polarimetric radar

Includes bibliographical references (pages 28-31).This article proposes and presents a novel approach to the characterization of winter precipitation and modeling of radar observables through a synergistic use of advanced optical disdrometers for microphysical and geometrical measurements of ice and snow particles (in particular, a multi-angle snowflake camera-MASC), image processing methodology, advanced method-of-moments scattering computations, and state-of-the-art polarimetric radars. The article also describes the newly built and established MASCRAD (MASC + Radar) in-situ measurement site, under the umbrella of CSU-CHILL Radar, as well as the MASCRAD project and 2014/2015 winter campaign. We apply a visual hull method to reconstruct 3D shapes of ice particles based on high-resolution MASC images, and perform "particle-by-particle" scattering computations to obtain polarimetric radar observables. The article also presents and discusses selected illustrative observation data, results, and analyses for three cases with widely-differing meteorological settings that involve contrasting hydrometeor forms. Illustrative results of scattering calculations based on MASC images captured during these events, in comparison with radar data, as well as selected comparative studies of snow habits from MASC, 2D video-disdrometer, and CHILL radar data, are presented, along with the analysis of microphysical characteristics of particles. In the longer term, this work has potential to significantly improve the radar-based quantitative winter-precipitation estimation.Published with support from the Colorado State University Libraries Open Access Research and Scholarship Fund